Mathematics · Expected Value
A company is considering whether to develop and market a new product. The cost of developing the product is estimated to be $150,000. There is a 70% probability that the development will succeed and a 30% probability that it will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed. In this case, there is a 50% chance that the marketing will be very successful yielding a profit of $250,000, a 30% chance of being reasonably successful yielding a profit of $150,000, and a 20% chance of being unsuccessful resulting in a loss of $80,000. These profit and loss amounts already take account of the $150,000 development cost. If the development fails, the $150,000 cost is written off with no further profit or loss. What is the expected value of the decision to develop and market the product?
- 1$4,000
- 2$62,800✓
- 3$107,800
- 4$154,000
Correct answer
$62,800
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